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Read Fred’s post – and just make sure you read to the end, because it’s not all doom and gloom. I think Fred’s also right on virtually all of the other predictions made in his epic post, which I won’t attempt to summarize here. Fred Wilson is right, Trump will not be president at the end of 2019. To the extent they’re concrete, that’s to make the game more interesting so we can better assess them next year. Reminder to see the disclaimers in my FAQ and remember that these predictions are not financial or business advice – they are made in the spirit of fun. With 9 hits, two of them major – and with only one offsetting major miss - I should probably just drop the mike and get out of the predictions business. Anaplan went public, Adaptive Insights was acquired by Workday, and Host Analytics was acquired by Vector Capital. 2018 will be a good year for cloud EPM vendors. To the extent this was due to overseas cash repatriation I don’t know, but it certainly was a factor.ġ0.
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Per Berkery Noyes, software M&A deal value was up nearly $100B over 2017. M&A heats up due to repatriation of overseas cash. Per this Forbes article, 57M people now participate in the gig economy in some way.ĩ. The freelance / gig economy continues to gain momentum with freelance workers poised to pass traditional employees by 2027. See this Forbes article about data from Dresner Advisory’s 2018 IoT Intelligence Market Study.Ĩ. The Internet of Things (IoT) will continue to build momentum. This one partially redeems me for over-estimating Facebook’s management.ħ. Since the prediction was about the controversy continuing, we’ll call it a hit.Ħ. While the optimists say AI will create more jobs than it will displace, many still worry conversely.
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AI will continue to generate lots of controversy about job displacement. See this McKinsey report for some interesting survey data on AI adoption and barriers to it.ĥ. AI will move from hype to action, meaning bigger budgets, more projects, and some high visibility failures. Well, I nailed that the issue would be critical, but boy did I overestimate the maturity of the management of these companies.Ĥ. Leading technology and social media companies finally step up to face ethical challenges. Unfortunately, the President is leading the charge on this front, with the Washington Post fact checker tallying 7,645 false claims since taking office.ģ. The war on facts and expertise will continue to escalate.
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Hard to argue I need to justify this one. We will again continue to see a level of divisiveness and social discord not seen since the 1960s. Here goes, starting with a review of last year’s predictions.ġ. Because I’ve been quite busy of late with the sale of my company, I’m doing a somewhat quicker and lighter (if not later) version of my annual predictions post.